Critical Analysis Of Pakistans Debt Crisis Economics Essay

Chapter 1

This chapter aims to supply background and relevant information refering to the current debt state of affairs of Pakistan and how debt has evolved over the old ages. The chapter will besides analyse the assorted factors and managerial concerns that affect the debt state of affairs of a state, in peculiar a state that has undergone debt restructuring in the yesteryear, looking at deductions of such debt restructuring policies. While briefly discoursing the assorted macroeconomic factors and consequence of policy executions on an indebted state, chances for Pakistan in footings of a debt crisis will besides be assessed in the undermentioned subdivisions.

1.1 An overview of Aid Inflow, Dependencies and Debt in Pakistan

Typically, practically and theoretically, external adoption is expected to speed up economic growing, particularly when domestic fiscal resources are non plenty to finance development and therefore necessitate to be supplemented with financess from foreign states or fiscal establishments. This is because developing states have comparatively low degrees of capital stocks and limited investing chances, but these limited investing chances entail high hazard, yet higher returns. Therefore, many argue that if borrowing states efficaciously channel external financess into productive investings, they may profit extremely from those investings, accomplishing economic growing and macroeconomic stableness, which will in bend help them to pay back their external debt. However, excessively much of external debt can besides hold highly damaging effects on an economic system and growing, due to the fact that when militias are used for debt service, creditworthiness erodes doing decrease in entree to external fiscal resources. Unfortunately, debt service demands have extremely unfavourable deductions for the state ‘s ability to settle debt or at least sustain the degree of debt instead than allowing the degree of external debt addition.

External debt state of affairs of a state, specifically of states that are considered Highly Indebted Poor Countries, was foremost attempted to be resolved by multi-lateral establishments such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, etc. Since 1988, when Pakistan became member of IMF, about 11 loan agreements have taken topographic point under assorted IMF plans. It is of import to observe that in the term of office of last two decennaries, on mean about 44 % of the entire loaning sum has been drawn from the original 100 % agreed upon loaning sum because of the failure of the authorities to move upon the rigorous steps determined by IMF. This shows the degree of dependence Pakistan has on foreign aid in order to prolong the economic system. IMF loan conditions, have in some instances, really worsened the economic state of affairs in Pakistan. Pushing towards enhanced exports, the IMF has ever promoted a devaluation of the Pakistani Rupee, but that has in bend merely kept exports and foreign exchange net incomes stagnant and because of raised import costs, debt service load, in the terminal, additions. Alongside, deficiency of proper enforcement of policies, hapless policies, and struggle between loaning establishments and the Pakistani politicians have exacerbated the already worsening state of affairs. In the terminal, this has merely led to a immense build-up of debt stock, which is expected to be paid by future coevalss to come. The rhythm that tends to follow in the economic system through history, though, seems to connote that this debt stock will stay round and future coevalss are likely to go through on the load on to even more future coevalss, as the predecessors have done so.

The construct of intergenerational equity was foremost introduced by James Tobin in 1974, except it has largely been applied to the thought of single public-service corporation and/or public debt in order to finance authorities outgo. In really rare instances has intergenerational equity been referred to when executing an analysis on the state as a whole.

When looking into the history of the external debt survey, we see the construct of foreign debt get downing from the clip of the Marshall Plan in the station World War II epoch. The Marshall Plan, officially known as the European Recovery Program, was a plan from 1947-1951, in which the United States funded the Reconstruction and rebuilding of economic foundation and substructure of the states of Europe, following the catastrophe they faced during the World War. It has been since so that the construct of supplying foreign aid to assist hapless or developing or hard-pressed states build or rebuild their economic systems has become popular.

Historically, Pakistan has faced a budget shortage since 1947. In the earlier old ages, debts were taken during the Ayub government for edifice dikes and industrialisation. It was merely during this clip that this money acquired from abroad was utilized right. After the split of East and West Pakistan, the economic system took a drastic bend as the epoch that followed after the split relied to a great extent on debts and increased budget deficits a batch as a consequence of political influences instead than economic development penchants. Another job that Pakistan faces even today is the deficiency of continuance of policies due to political instability and alterations in political docket. This job started in the 70s and has continued since.

Increased and uncontrolled outgos and dependance on debt started during the Zia government when foreign assistance flew in due to the Afghan War. During Zia epoch, the entire national debt grew at an mean rate of 17.7 % . The inflow of foreign assistance did small to assist the debt state of affairs as it soared to 630 billion rupees. A part to this was the dearly-won non-bank adoption, e.g. from national salvaging strategies, and the ratio of debt to GDP kept lifting. Interest payments on debt besides rocketed to about 28 per centum of grosss. Between 1980 and 1989, Pakistan ‘s disbursement about doubled from 63.6 to 201.2 billion rupees during the clip period of merely one decennary. Most of this disbursement was directed at contending the Afghan war as Pakistan ‘s defence budget more than doubled while development budget increased merely by a little figure. The “ assistance ” given during this period besides included monolithic sum of debt and as a consequence, there was a 630 billion addition in entire debt.

The biggest mistake of Zia epoch was disproportional growing between debt, currency inflow versus existent growing and production capacity of the economic system. Although the Afghan War was depicted as Pakistan ‘s triumph, its after effects were ruinous for Pakistan. The monolithic adoption and involvement rates took their toll in the undermentioned decennary as a barbarous rhythm of borrowing more debt to payoff involvement, which still continues today at the cost of reduced development outgo and impairment in quality of life of ordinary people.

The authoritiess that followed in the 90s merely brought in more debt for the state, in attempt to decide the jobs the Zia government had created for the economic system, but failed at their efforts to cut down financial spread, control and cut down adoption, and promote sustained growing and development. Alternatively, the authorities outgo continued to turn to 790 billion rupees in twelvemonth 2000 compared to 260 billion in 1990. Despite this monolithic addition in budget disbursement, the development outgo remained about unchanged. The addition in debt, impairment in quality of life of people despite some growing in the overall economic system, clearly indicates of hapless economic public presentation of these authoritiess.

The Musharraf epoch of the 2000s besides was non much aid in cut downing foreign debt, with economic tensenesss due to high defence outgos and monolithic involvement payments of old debt. In 2001, Pakistan was the lone state in South Asia that was classified as a badly indebted state by the World Bank in its study. Due to the inability to serve external debt, there were several back-to-back unit of ammunitions of debt rescheduling between Government of Pakistan and giver nines and organisation between 1998 and 2001. Fortunately though, Pakistan received monolithic fiscal external respiration infinite because of its engagement in the war on panic after September 2001. This helped in worsening the debt-GDP ratio well. It can be seen that the picks of old authoritiess has impacted future coevalss. With the lifting debt of the current authorities, future coevalss are expected to hold a high debt involvement payment.

As of August 2010, the State Bank of Pakistan announced that Pakistan ‘s external debt reached a sum of $ 54 billion. However, with the issue of hapless administration, policy devising and execution, and with the effects of the recent inundation on rising prices and limited resources in the state, it barely seems plausible that these debts will be paid off as the opportunities of economic growing seem bleak. Simultaneously, harmonizing to the UNDP, the young person of Pakistan do up approximately 63 % of the population. The future population load is already expected to be high plenty to impede economic growing, and the added force per unit area of paying off debt taken by earlier coevalss is likely to convey the economic system crashing. This subject is particularly of import to research into sing the recent argument over the cancellation of all external debt. In order to forestall future shortage in the current history balance, Pakistan has attempted to originate many keeping step to restrict inflationary force per unit area and to protect the economic system. “ However, since there is a significant time-lag for these steps to work their manner through the economic system, its growing gets affected negatively from holds in their effectivity, ” ( Afxentiou and Serletis, 1996 ) .

1.2 Debt Burden, Debt Servicing and Development

As mentioned above, external debt can hold many negative deductions on an economic system, in contrast to the theoretical impression that debt helps an economic system to turn. While such a phenomenon partly depends on the state ‘s policies refering to the use of the external fundss, there are many facets that have an inevitably damaging impact on the economic system in most instances when fundss are non used expeditiously. This is particularly debatable in a state of affairs when debt accumulates over clip and through multiple coevalss, set uping most the development of, non merely the adoption state as a whole, but the persons of the state excessively. To understand this, it must be understood first that finally all external debt demands to be repaid by the persons of a state via revenue enhancement. For that ground, along with multiple other factors, unsustainable debt adversely affects human development because debt service limits the resources available for investing in human development and because debt overhang discourages economic growing. For illustration, Tanzania has spent nine times and four times more on debt service than it has on health care and primary instruction, severally ( Oxfam 1998 ) . In Ethiopia, one of the least developed states of the universe, debt payments are four times more than public disbursement on wellness attention ( Oxfam 1998 ) . In fact, African authoritiess, as a whole, spend four times more on debt payments to their creditors than they do on wellness and instruction ( Oxfam 1998 ) .

Unsustainable debt loads besides prevent states from puting in technological productiveness and advancement, which are necessary for economic growing and development.

Most significantly, deterrences for investing arise when the people expect certain policies to be announced in relation to debt service payments. As mentioned earlier, in order to pay back external debt, authoritiess become necessitated to either addition revenue enhancements or lower authorities outgo, or a combination of both. Tax additions are likely to fall in portion on net incomes authorities outgo cuts to impact ingestion on substructure and other developmental undertakings. Such policies in bend restrict domestic demand while at the same time lifting the domestic involvement rate, therefore cut downing investings yet once more.

Foreign states and fiscal establishments besides become hesitating to put farther in borrowing states when borrowing becomes inordinate, hence, inordinate foreign debt reduces a borrowing state ‘s entree to external support. Debt overhang can take to high degrees of disheartenment as heavy liability signals the loaners around the universe that investings in such adoption states is highly hazardous as service of debt has really low chance. In this mode, debt overhang leaves developing and hapless states impoverished and cut off from fianancial resources or have to pay more to derive entree to planetary fiscal markets. UNDP estimated that in the 1980s, hapless states had a domestic involvement rate that was four times greater than the involvement rates of developed, rich states due to the hapless external recognition evaluations and outlooks of national currency depreciations ( Human Development Report 1997 ) . The grounds mentioned above and more indicate that investing in human development instead than debt service is important for developing, borrowing states, and therefore debt alleviation or debt restructuring become necessary.

1.3 Changing Debt Structure and its Deductions

Although debt restructuring appears to be a feasible option on paper for betterment in debt conditions of states, many contentions have risen over the debt restructuring procedure in mention to the many jobs that are linked to the procedure. The jobs related to debt restructuring are described in seven classs, harmonizing to Roubini and Sester ( 2003 ) .

“ A haste to go out from the crowned head ‘s ain debt ” – Creditors frequently choose non to ‘roll over ‘ claims for a borrowing state that they are good cognizant will necessitate to reconstitute in the close hereafter anyhow. Although creditors have an inducement of highly high returns on loans made to an “ illiquid ” yet still “ solvent ” state, creditors still need to analyse the possibility of that return, depending on adulthood of the loan and other factors.

“ A haste to the courthouse ” – Restructuring debt in footings of suspending payments stops the haste to the issues, but it can take to a hazard of judicial proceeding. Although the option has been available for loaners to prehend the borrower ‘s assets in instance of non-payment, in pattern that has seldom happened, partly because of the fact that an insolvent adoption state does non hold many assets to get down with while the borrower ‘s international militias are already lawfully protected. However, loaners can enforce some legal action on borrowers in instance of default, but can non prehend full belongings or enforce conditions by force.

“ Free riders or holdouts ” – It must be realized that there is normally non a individual creditor at any point in clip as a adoption state frequently owes debt to multiple loaners. Therefore, although creditors choose to move on an single footing, it is more good for the borrower if all loaners act jointly in footings of understanding to restructuring. Individually, every loaner would be better off if the remainder of the creditors agreed to reconstituting while it decides non to make so and acquire its payment back in full through judicial proceeding. This leads a quandary, slightly like the Prisoner ‘s Dilemma, a popular economic theory. Since each creditor looks out for its ain benefit and decides to keep out, finally the borrower is non able to reconstitute its debt.

“ The absence of an enforceable precedence construction for the crowned head ‘s ain debt that helps to settle inquiries of equity and the comparative intervention of different creditor groups ” – When a state becomes insolvent and is non able to pay back its debt, it has the ability to adhere its footings on loaners in a restructuring procedure. It besides holds the right to make up one’s mind the precedence sequence of payments to its loaners. Although there are general informal regulations present, for illustration, that international fiscal establishments such as World Bank and the IMF are be default repaid before other loaners. However, there are no substantial regulations that determine how a crowned head should handle their unbarred domestic debt, their unbarred external debt, and the model for restructuring of debt.

“ Policy conditionality ” – The consequence of degree of conditionality and the grade of its conformity does non merely impact the debt restructuring procedure, but the external loan wholly every bit good. There is by and large a deficiency of coordination or degree of understanding between creditors and borrowers over what policies need to be followed so that the debt is good for the borrower while they are besides in a place to pay back that debt easy. The procedure of autonomous debt restructuring that is presently followed attempts to turn to this issue by associating the debitor ‘s plan of policy reforms to new money from international fiscal establishments instead than negociating straight between the adoption and loaning parties.

“ Haste to default ” – Although sweetenings in the system of restructuring, including its legal alterations, makes the procedure of reconstituting debt easier, but at the same time increases the chance of default as the borrower needs to do less attempt to do certain the debt service payments are made. This is turn makes available recognition for borrowers even more scarce.

“ Other tallies ” – Although debt restructuring reduces the force per unit area on the current history balance of a adoption state, the side effects of borrowing can non be avoided. Consequences of borrowing show effects in the domestic banking system, the currency of the adoption state, trade places, domestic monetary values and foreign investing.

1.4 Prospects of Development and the Debt Crisis

Pakistan ‘s economic system is presently at a hamlets. Deep-rooted jobs in the economic state of affairs and in the authorities establishments along with two major natural catastrophes have slowed down economic growing vastly. The current place of the economic system suggest menaces of a fiscal crisis, higher than current degrees of rising prices, declining unemployment, and farther nutrient, electricity and H2O deficits. In mention to roll uping debt of the state in peculiar, a likely addition in budget shortage along with hapless economic growing is likely to make a major public debt crisis for Pakistan, with the economic system in a major debt trap.

There are merely two ways of funding roll uping debt and both ways have their negative outwardnesss. Domestic funding of budget shortage via financial policy reforms and bank adoption will ensue in rising prices and herding out of private investing. On the other manus, farther external adoption would assist stabilise the economic system, but at an highly high cost of increased future debt load liability and force per unit area on foreign militias. The lone staying option is that of depletion of foreign exchange militias along with devaluation of the rupee. This, nevertheless, would increase the existent cost of adoption, which in bend would necessitate farther support.

In order to integrate future debt payments as good, the Ministry of Finance of Pakistan has typically referred to the issue of debt from a point of view of entire stock of public debt plus net add-on in stock of debt sing expected refund challenges in 2013 and 2014. Using a basal twelvemonth of 2008-09, the Ministry of Finance predicts that if the authorities successfully maintains budget deficit-GDP ratio to 2.5 per centum for five old ages following 2008-09, with existent economic growing retained at 4.1 per centum and with a 2.2 per centum existent involvement rates, entire debt will cut down to 20.6 per centum of GDP. However, any dazes in the economic system or to any of the variables assumed to be held changeless, such as alterations in involvement rate, would take to major jobs in external debt refund ( Ahmed, 2010 ) . Unfortunately, the current status of Pakistan ‘s economic system shows disposition towards a farther diminution in the existent growing rate along with an addition in the budget shortage. Policy recommendations so far purpose to cut down rising prices rate to a individual figure figure. However, that would take to an addition in existent involvement rate on debt, which would in bend push the Debt-GDP ratio to a degree that is highly unsustainable and barely manageable. Therefore, it is evident that although attempts are being made to better debt status of the state, opportunities of betterment in the close hereafter seem bleak and farther load on future coevalss can be expected.

1.5 Debt Crisis, Macroeconomic Variables and Policy Distortions

An analysis of assorted macroeconomic variables is necessary in the survey of external debt. The function of immigrant remittals in economic development continues to be an of import issue for research workers and policymakers as they represent a significant flow of fiscal resources, preponderantly from developed economic systems to developing economic systems. In 2007, over $ 300 billion worth of workers ‘ remittals were transferred worldwide through official agencies ( Bajaras, 2009 ) . It can be expected that possibly one million millions more were transferred through unofficial channels as good. Therefore, it can be seen how economically of import, comparative to income and GDP, workers ‘ remittals from abroad can be for developing states. “ For illustration, Chami et Al ( 2008 ) reported that the mean workers ‘ remittances-GDP ratio for all underdeveloped states over the period 1995-2004 is 3.6 % . On a country-by-country footing, workers ‘ remittals exceeded 1 % of GDP ( on norm ) for over 60 states during this period, and seven of these states had mean workers ‘ remittances-GDP ratios of 15 % or higher, ” ( Bajaras, 2009 ) . Recently, remittals for developing states have increased to a value similar in worth to foreign direct investing ( FDI ) . Although sum of remittals vary from state to state, in Pakistan, sum of remittals from abroad have remained changeless as a per centum of GDP and lifting in nominal value, except for fluctuation in occasional old ages, such as 2008, the clip of the Global Financial Crisis. Such high degrees of remittals help the Pakistani economic system by supplying consistent income and finance that can be used for investing and ingestion. In kernel, remittals have the same impact on economic growing and development as FDI does. In its 2005 papers, the U.S. Approach to International Development: Building on the Monterrey Consensus, U.S. Department of State, “ labels remittals as a “ development resource ” and topographic points remittals in the same class as domestic nest eggs and foreign private investing, ” ( Bajaras, 2009 ) .

Another macroeconomic variable that has a major impact debt state of affairs of a state and potency of debt default is the exchange rate of a adoption state. In their paper, Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crisis in Emerging Economies, Jahjah and Montiel ( 2003 ) set up a strong linkage between exchange rate policy and debt default. The exchange rate that loaner expect will predominate in the hereafter affects the sum that they are willing to provide to borrowing authoritiess. In the illustration of Mexico, a devaluation of its exchange rate resulted in a monolithic debt crisis, following initial economic growing. The debt crisis can largely be accounted to refusal of creditors to reconstitute or turn over over bing debt or to let farther imparting. Such a state of affairs is normally worsened when a borrowing state already has an huge sum of debt.

Unfortunately, although theoretically the impact of policies refering to assorted macroeconomic variables appear obvious, in developing states, policy deformations frequently lead to change by reversal effects. Whereas some policy deformations result from high degrees of assistance exchangeability on the portion of the adoption states, much of the deformation is besides a consequence of the contradictory conditionalities of the giver establishments or states. The two major international fiscal establishments, IMF and World Bank, are of import beginnings of capital financess for developing economic systems, but in recent old ages, their aims and loaning processs and conditionalities have been questioned and criticized. The IMF, in peculiar, is particularly scrutinized for advancing policies and enforcing conditions that hurt the economic system instead than assist it turn. Although the IMF and other givers can be blamed for enforcing conditions that are unhelpful, it can non be ignored that a major cause behind ineffectualness of loans is because of exchangeability, hapless administration and deficiency of conformity among borrowing states. “ Goldstein and Montiel ( 1986 ) show that IMF plans have negative effects on growing. Conway ( 1994 ) concludes that IMF plans have merely favourable growing and investing deductions in the long tally, ” ( Vreeland, 2003 ) . Assorted macroeconomic and debt related surveies ( Barro, 1998 ; Barro & A ; Lee, 2003 ; Bordo & A ; Schwartz, 2000 ; Hutchison, 2001 ; Przeworski & A ; Vreeland, 2000 ; Stiglitz, 2000 ) assert that IMF plans are mor detrimental for borrowing states than they are good. However, a generic consensus about the effects of IMF loaning has non yet been established as counter-arguments create struggle of sentiment. Such counter-argument surveies report positive growing effects of IMF loaning, such as Dicks-Mireaux et al. , 2000 and Mercer Blackman & A ; Unigovskaya, 2004, but believe these positive effects are non evident in the economic system due to miss of conformity by recipient authoritiess.

1.6 Keywords and Definitions

Some of the keywords that need to be defined for this research are:

Debt Servicing – Cash required over a given period for the refund of involvement and principal on a debt ( hypertext transfer protocol: //www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtservice.asp )

Aid Fungibility – when the Donor gives the Government Aid for Good Thing A and refuses to fund Bad Thing B. The cagey Government so reduces its ain disbursement on Good Thing A one for one with the assistance, so that entire disbursement ( Donor + Government ) on Good Thing A is unchanged. The authorities uses its nest eggs on A to pass more on Bad Thing B. So de facto ( compared to the pre-aid state of affairs ) A the Donor truly has no consequence on Angstrom and merely hasA the consequence of increasing entire disbursement on Bad Thing B. ( http: //aidwatchers.com/2010/10/reader-exercise-please-explain-aid-fungibility-to-our-secretary-of-state/ ) . I.e. , a province in which a adoption state manipulates its ingestion to derive loans for greater outgo on a non-desirable undertaking by showing it as outgo on a desirable undertaking.

Intergenerational Equity – In the context of this study, intergenerational equity means guaranting that between coevalss, equality is maintained, in footings of debt refunds, with indexs such as Debt-GDP. That is to state that the current coevals should merely borrow plenty from external beginnings that they are able to refund or utilize in development undertakings expeditiously so that future coevalss do non hold to confront the load of refunding those external debts with no sustainable development to back up it. One coevals should non borrow overly without effectual productiveness so as to take away from future coevalss ‘ growing, development, and chances for foreign adoptions.

External Debt Stock – part of a state ‘s debt that was borrowed from foreign loaners including commercial Bankss, authoritiess or international fiscal institutions.A These loans, including involvement, must normally be paid in the currency in which the loan was made.A In order to gain the needful currency, the borrowing state may sell and export goods to the loaner ‘s state ( http: //www.investopedia.com/terms/e/external-debt.asp ) . For the intent of this paper, the footings “ external debt stock ” , “ current history balance ” and “ budget shortage ” will be used interchangeably.

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries ( HIPC ) – group of 40 developing states with high degrees of poorness and debt overhang which are eligible for particular aid from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the World Bank. The group includes 32 states with a 1993 GNP per capita of $ 695 or less and whose 1993 present value of debt to exports is higher than 200 per centum or whose present value of debt to GNP is higher than 80 per centum ( World Bank categorization of badly indebted low-income states ) . ( hypertext transfer protocol: //stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp? ID=1221 ) Countries that are less dependent on foreign debt are classified as Reasonably Indebted Middle-Income Countries ( MIMC ) .

Debt Overhang – A debt overhang occurs when the cost of debt is combined with a autumn in a state ‘s trade and economic wellness. As a consequence there is reduced disbursement on instruction, wellness, and substructure which puts the state in even worse economic form. ( hypertext transfer protocol: //www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtoverhang.asp )

Debt Sustainability – ability of a debitor state to serve its debt on a go oning footing and non travel into default. ( hypertext transfer protocol: //www.google.com.pk/search? hl=en & A ; safe=off & A ; defl=en & A ; q=define: debt+sustainability & A ; sa=X & A ; ei=AZTvTNDoCoqgvQP715iVDg & A ; ved=0CBQQkAE ) This is done by guaranting that debt refunds are non postponed inefficiently on to the future population, by puting foreign debt in effectual and profitable development undertakings of doing debt payments in a timely mode so every bit to non detain debt payments and avoid build-up of external debt balances.

Sovereign Credit Rating – recognition evaluation of a state or autonomous entity. Sovereign recognition evaluations give investors insight into the degree of hazard associated with puting in a peculiar state and include political hazards. At the petition of the state, a recognition evaluation bureau will evaluateA the state ‘s economic and political environment to find a representative recognition evaluation. ( http: //www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-credit-rating.asp )

Social public assistance – In the context of this survey, societal public assistance is measured in footings of public-service corporation of a coevals, and public-service corporation is measured in footings of capital/person in a given coevals. This is based on the premise that ingestion and nest eggs picks can be made by people of a coevals based on the capital available to them and entree to basic installations such as wellness and instruction. ( Based on description of public assistance by: The Intergenerational Equity Report 2010 – Commonwealth of Australia ) For the intent of this paper, societal public assistance will besides be referred to as development.

1.7 Study Aims

This survey aims to measure Pakistan ‘s roll uping external debt in mention to its impact on economic growing, development, and edifice force per unit area on future coevalss. Although a big current history shortage has many deductions on the current province of the economic system, this survey aims to analyse how these deductions will decline for future coevalss as old policies have burdened the current coevals, while at the same time foretelling the chance of a debt crisis and crowned head default. The paper will besides look at the assorted macroeconomic and external variables that play a cardinal function in the accretion of debt, including political and geo-political effects.

End Notes