Energy Consumption Before And During Dictatorship Economics Essay

This research assesses the ingestion and alteration in combinations of different types of beginnings of energy in Pakistan over two different clip frames based on political construction which include a democratic nature and the other one is non democratic. Energy need in different sector is systematically increasing, so accurate combinations of different beginnings of energy are needed to be assessed in order to find the energy efficient combinations. It is besides needed that proper energy coevals programs should be developed in order to supply the economic system with prosperity and growing. This research is important sing rating of alteration in ingestion of energy in relation with alteration in Pakistan ‘s political construction.

Table OF CONTENTS

S.NO.

Description

Page NO.

1.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………… .

two

2.

ABSTRACT………………………………………………………

three

3.

List OF TABLES………………………………………………..

V

4.

Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION……………………………… …

Overview……………………………………………………..

Research Problem…..………………………………………..

Research Hypothesis ……………………………………… …

Outline of the Study………………………………………

Definitions………………………………………………… …

1

5.

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………

3

6.

Chapter 3: Research METHODS…………………………

3.1 Method of Data Collection…………………………………..

3.2 Sample Size………………………………………………… .

3.3 Research Model Developed………………………………… .

3.4 Statistical Technique…………………………………………

9

7.

Chapter 4: RESULTS…………………………………………

4.1 Findingss and Interpretation of the results……………………

4.2 Hypothesis Assessment Summary…………………………..

10

8.

Chapter 5: Decision, DISCUSSIONS, IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH…………………

5.1 Conclusion……………………………………………… … … .

5.2 Discussion……………………………………………………

5.3 Deductions and Recommendations…………………………

5.4 Future Research…………………………………………… …

13

9.

REFERENCES………………………………………… … ………

15

10.

APPENDIX………………………………………………………

16

List OF TABLES

S.NO

Table

Page No.

1

Independent Samples Test

10

2

Data position Table

16

3

Variable position Table

17

4

Group Statistics Table

17

Chapter 1: Introduction

Overview

From the twelvemonth 1980 to 2009 ingestion is found low and high sing different beginnings of energy and addition in energy strength was discovered because of political construction and due to alter in economic construction and economic activity in Pakistan. It is feasible to find the grounds behind the alteration since ingestion of energy is a forecaster in finding of highly of import variables such as economic growing, employment, rising prices and others.

Problem statement

To analyze energy ingestion during democratic and non democratic authorities.

Hypothesis

H1: Consumption of Oil/Petroleum in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

H2: Consumption of Gas in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

H3: Consumption of Electricity in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

H4: Consumption of Coal in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

1.4 Outline of the Study

To analyze the energy ingestion informations of 30 old ages from 1980 to 2009 is acquired and analyzed with the dissolutions in difference energy beginnings. These energy beginnings include Oil, Gas, electricity and coal. The survey is based on the type of authorities in which the beginnings of energy are being utilised. These authorities types include two type in which first one is democratic and the other one is non democratic. It is to find the high or low ingestion of these beginnings in different frames of authorities.

1.5 Definitions

Energy ingestion

It is the sum ingestion which include all beginnings of energy with there relevant unit.

Oil ingestion

Oil ingestion is the per annum use measured in thousand barrels

Gas ingestion

Gas Consumption is the per annum use measured in Billion Cubic Feet

Electricity ingestion

Electricity Net Consumption is the per annum use measured in Billion Kilowatt-hours

Coal ingestion

Entire Coal Consumption is the per annum use measured in Thousand Short Tonss

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

Ongoing research point towards question originating from the increasing energy monetary values with the scarceness of resources, Seek for other ways to bring forth energy and find of resources has been a critical issue from the foundation. Growth is the determiner of higher energy production and concentrate on efficient usage of resources. Therefore enlargement programs are meant to supply with chance of increasing the growing procedure where film editing of the militias for enlargement programs are suppose to cut the growing. In this respect growing in economic system besides leads to the addition in demand for energy. Here the developing relationship of causality is seen. Causal relationships are tested by assorted scientists.

For illustration Aqeel and Butt ( 2001 ) found and tested in the literature for the causality for energy ingestion with economic growing and employment was done. The causality which was found was unidirectional for some states where consequences inferred for Pakistan which were that the causality runs from the electricity ingestion towards economic growing. The tendency tells about the relationship cause among the variables as harmonizing to standard farmer trial that if historical values contribute towards variable Xt+1 by a variable Yttrium so it is meant to granger cause X. The trial foundation was arrested development with a jutting theoretical account. This trial with times series informations lead to betterments in standard farmer trial. There were two stairss of the process in which foremost was to look into stationary of original variables and so after wards to look into the co integrating among them. The trial harmonizing to farmer verified that it is valid if the variables are non co integrated. The consequences of farmer were really sensitive and were able to do prejudice. When the selected slowdown length was high so the slowdowns which were irrelevant caused the inefficient estimates. This job was resolved by the systematic autoregressive method which used each variable for the pick of optimum slowdown length in an equation. The two techniques of co integrating and farmer were used to see the causal relationship among GDP and energy. It besides determined the relationship between GDP and many constituents of energy for e.g. Oil, gas and electricity. The foundation of the theoretical account leads to the edifice of relation among economic growing and energy ingestion. The research information was from the twelvemonth 1956 to 1996 taken from economic studies of Pakistan and yearbooks. The decisions included to boot about the ingestion of peculiar resources crude oil, gas, electricity and the causal relationship with economic activity and the empirical determination show economic growing causes entire energy ingestion. More over crude oil ingestion is increased because of economic growing. Gas ingestion shows no relationship with the economic growing. Electricity ingestion show the economic growing and employment is caused by energy ingestion. Oil ingestion to be used more expeditiously while have gas as a replacement is a good step of policy as Pakistan 1999 import show crude oil import of 1.53 billion or can be stated as 25 per centum of entire imports.

Siddiqui ( 2004 ) found that in 1990 the demand of energy in Pakistan was comparatively lower with respect to other developing states excepting srilanka and Nepal. The ground may be because of less present resources and less strength. Data of 1996 show that Pakistan has low energy resources and per capita energy available was low where one encouraging factor remained that growing rate of energy usage in commercial sector was close to other states like China and India. Historical information besides revealed that GDP per energy unit was lower in Pakistan as in other states were non. Energy strength in assorted beginnings of energy shows fluctuations with clip which include electricity, gas crude oil merchandises and other beginnings. It was besides found that energy uninterrupted supply and demand is non merely of import of prosperity in economic system but besides for the prosperity of future coevalss. Empirical analysis concluded that absence of needed sum of energy can shutdown economic growing. To get the better of the jobs of energy demand policies are required to be made which are non individual dimensional and which could heighten the economic growing and push to the degree highest. Solution to the job is increase the available energy beginning and to better the balance of payment place. This can be done by the designation of beginnings of energy which are alternate. The conclutions and recommendation included few points which were that monetary value rise are impacting econmic growing and demand paterns. Renewable beginnings of energy and balance of payment should be reexamined. Enforcement of policies which encourage the enlargement and the energy entree and which could better the dependable beginnings and diminish the financial hazard. That can be eliminated with the riddance of subsides to protect authorities libilities. Privitazation is making unemployment and addition in poorness. The past 10 old ages has given attension to the ecological hazarts. These issues have been identified from the developed states.

Alam and Butt ( 2001 ) found the ground to transport out a research which was based on energy consumotion and energy strength. Intensity was the term used for the demand in a peculiar sector for illustration in the industrial sector the strength is meant to more and so demand is high in inductrial sector. Complete decomposition theoretical account is used to differenciate sector which included industrial sector, residensial sector and other governement related sector. This theoretical account gave an thought of residuary term which really affects the acuracy of the theoretical account. In few researches the remainder has been edited which is ground of a immense appraisal mistake. Its was through empirical observation found that commercial energy use during 1960-1998 increased by nine crease which is relatively larger so the use in the period of 2001. The groups sing energy defined by research workers were low strength and high internsity. It was besides found that GDP was 572.4 billion more in the comparative period where GDP of high intercity group was 238 billion more. This was concluded that if alterations are seen in construction, so aggregate energy strength besides tends to increase where aggregative energy ingestion is more when there is a simultaniuos alteration in activity and construction. This was an ambiguis decision that economiic construction alteration and activity may take to inefficient usage of energy. More finding show that if energy is expeditiously used in high energy intensive sectors so aggregate efficiency can be improved as compared to betterment of efficiency in low energy intensive sectors. The grounds behind the infficient usage were still unknown. The conjecture stated were due to system absance or undependable systems. Absance of efficiency in direction, model and work force were besides portion of those conjecture. Some deduction were to better the efficiency and to get down to conserve policy that will take to rapid energy monetary value manuvering. Educating public, doing cheques and balances of energy usage and other methods were encouraged to heighten energy nest eggs.

Khan and Usman, ( 2009 ) found that energy demand when diaggregated, the degree where annually information is used which was from the twelvemonth 1972 to 2007, there was a long tally relation in gas demand. The illation was that positive consequence on gas ingestion was due to long tally existent income per capital. Where local monetary value have an absent function when gas demand is considered in long-run. It was found that there is no prove of carbon monoxide intergration in the maps of electricity and coal demand. Where elastic gas and coal ingestion was found which was hight than electricity demand. Still the monetary value on norm had an snap much higher in respect of gas ingestion when compared to eletricity and coal ingestion. The deduction was in each component of energy ingestion to do betterments in revenue enhancement policies and income coevals. It was besides found that in the short tally coal is a necessity good because monetary value and income are less elastic in the instance of coal instead than of gas in Pakistan. The consequences were indispensable for the development of feasible income and pricing policy steps.

Hussain, Chaudhry, and Malik ( 2009 ) found that there is a stong prove of presence of resources which are natural have a great part in the state ‘s economic growing. Time series informations was used from 1975 to 2006 which show relation between the natural recources and economic activity and growing where this economic activity has an outlook to hold complications and controvercies. The certification is besides done about the important and unfavourable association of natural resources and economic activity and growing. In instance of appraisal of the relationship with add-on of variables like human development, instruction outgos in GDP, wellness outgos in GDP, the findings of relation of natural resource and economic activity and growing were similar and had undistinguished difference. Relibility trial showed a favorable conclution for the hypothesis set by the research workers which was the is the copiousness of huge natural resources is a expletive for the state. Where historical archives besides confirms the quandary about the instability in the economic activity and growing in the state where natural resources are present in copiousness. It was besides found the human captial investing has non contributed positively which may be due to the deficient attension towards the human resource in Pakistan. The survey was an debut when this focal point is said to be explored much more and still deficient research is done. It was concluded that it is still foolhardy to province our abandance of natural resources as a curce since there exist a immense capacity to use and develop options and to add prosperity to the economic system.

Sahu and Narayanan ( 2010 ) found that energy strength in india fabrication was due to strucural alteration and have a negetive relation. Where energy strength in sectors were posively related and had important increasing tendency. It was besides found that energy strength in sector were unidirectional when there were alteration in aggregative strength of industries which are actuating the alterations in strength in Indian manufacting.

Christoph, Heinz, and Loschel ( 1997 ) made the research to happen that if enviromental revenue enhancements have any relation with cardinal market construction. The decisions were that imperfect competition leads to the impact of ecological revenue enhancements on economic systems of graduated table when there is alteration in the figure of houses. Now if electricity demand is induced so it will consequence the industry and otherwise non. It was besides concluded that alteration in struturea and ecological and due to imperfect competion has non been explored to a satisfactory degree and necessitate more research. In the research workers senario the findings provided with the decision that ecological taxed may be significatly differenct so the yesteryear.

Chapter 3:

RESEARCH METHODS

3.1 Method of Data Collection

The information nature is secondary and collected from web sites of authorities organisations which include State bank of Pakistan, ministry of finance authorities of Pakistan, statistic division authorities of Pakistan and Wikipedia. Other beginnings include assorted issues of Energy twelvemonth book and Economic study of Pakistan.

3.2 Sample Size

Sample size of 30 old ages of ingestion and production from 1980 to 2009 of

Time series informations.

3.3 Research Model

Collection of informations of 30 old ages of energy ingestion in two different natures of authoritiess.

Analysis of agencies of ingestion in both frames of authorities.

Comparison of efficient use of beginning of energy in both frames.

3.4 Statistical Technique

One group Sample T-test technique is used to prove the hypothesis.

Chapter 4:

Consequence

4.1 Findingss and Interpretation of the consequences

Table 4.1 Independent Samples Test

Levene ‘s Test for Equality of Discrepancies

t-test for Equality of Means

95 % Confidence Interval of the Difference

F

Sig.

T

df

Sig. ( 2-tailed )

Average Difference

Std. Error Difference

Lower

Oil/Petroleum ( thousand barrels per twenty-four hours ) Sum

Equal discrepancies non assumed

26.034

.000

.794

28.000

.434

25.09599

31.60445

-39.64281

Gas Consumption ( Billion Cubic Feet )

Equal discrepancies non assumed

7.347

.011

-.304

27.391

.763

-34.03521

111.90587

-263.49376

Entire Electricity ingestion

Equal discrepancies non assumed

33.295

.000

-.778

20.405

.446

-4.08570

5.25436

-15.03218

Entire Coal Consumption ( Thousand Short Tons )

Equal discrepancies non assumed

11.791

.002

-.456

26.402

.652

-335.21229

734.51218

-1843.90627

Groups = Government type ( 0,1 ) ( Democratic, Non democratic )

CRITERIA = CI ( .95 )

Average difference is defined as ( energy ingestion in non democratic authorities – energy ingestion in democratic authorities )

H1: Consumption of Oil/Petroleum in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

There is difference of energy ingestion in democratic and non democratic authorities and average difference is positive so energy ingestion was more in non democratic authorities.

H2: Consumption of Gas in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

There is difference of energy ingestion in democratic and non democratic authorities and average difference is negative so energy ingestion was less in non democratic authorities.

H3: Consumption of Electricity in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

There is difference of energy ingestion in democratic and non democratic authorities and average difference is negative so energy ingestion was less in non democratic authorities.

H4: Consumption of Coal in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

There is difference of energy ingestion in democratic and non democratic authorities and average difference is negative so energy ingestion was less in non democratic authorities.

4.2 Hypothesis Assessment sum-up

Proposed Research Hypothesis

Sig ( 2-tailed )

Consequence

H1: Consumption of Oil/Petroleum in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

.434

Rejected

H2: Consumption of Gas in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

.763

Rejected

H3: Consumption of Electricity in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

.446

Rejected

H4: Consumption of Coal in sum was higher during non democratic govt.

.652

Rejected

Chapter 5:

CONCLUSION, DISCUSSION, IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH

5.1 Decision

As we see there is major positive difference in ingestion of oil in non democratic authorities. It shows that the non democratic authorities has ever been someway maintained the monetary values of oil which encouraged the consumer and the demand for oil was high every bit compared to our beginnings of energy. The other beginnings which include gas, coal and electricity show low use in non democratic authorities and high use in democratic authorities. These empirical determination rejecting the hypothesis show that there is less significance of difference while average difference Tell about the comparing of democratic with non democratic authorities.

5.2 Discussion

High ingestion can promote because of grounds which may include the relentless monetary values of a peculiar merchandise and in this instance Oil. The non democratic authorities has been subsidising the oil and hence had a consistence consequence in oil monetary values which encouraged the consumer and demand raised.

5.3 Deductions and Recommendations

Recent authorities has been once more and once more for the drastic bastard rise in oil monetary values. This rise is caused because of the absence of subsidy on oil monetary values. In the current scenario consumer have the despairing impulse to switch to a cheaper energy beginning. It is recommended for the authorities that it should put in immense energy bring forthing programs instead than subsidising the energy beginnings, which finally leads to rising prices.

5.4 Future Research

There is a batch of capacity to place new energy beginnings and the 1s which are most inexpensive and dependable in add-on with safety. In this respect atomic beginnings are really inexpensive but still risky and a menace to life.

Mentions

Alam, S. , and Butt, M. S. ( 2001 ) . Measuring Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity Changes in Pakistan: An Application of complete Decomposition Model. The Pakistan Development Review, 135-147.

Aqeel, A. , and Butt, M. S. ( 2001 ) . The Relationship betweel energy ingestion and economic growing in Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 101-110.

Christoph, B. , Heinz, W. , and Loschel, A. ( 1997 ) . Environmental Taxation and structural alteration in an unfastened economic system.

Hussain, S. , Chaudhry, I. S. , and Malik, S. ( 2009 ) . Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative scientific disciplines, 189-198.

Khan, M. A. , and Usman, A. ( 2009 ) . Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis. Pakistan Institute of Development economic sciences.

Ray, B. K. , and Reddy, B. S. ( 2008, June ) . Understanding industrial Energy usage: Physical energy strength alterations in Indian fabrication sector. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development research ( IGIDR ) .

Sahu, S. , and Narayanan, K. ( 2010, March 19 ) . Decomposition of Industrial enegy Consumption in Indian Manufacturing the enegy strength attack.

Siddiqui, R. ( 2004 ) . Energy and economic growing in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 175-200.