Relationship Between Inflation And Exchange Rate Economics Essay

Inflation is an addition in the monetary value of a set of goods and services that is representative of the economic system as a whole and an exchange rate is the current market monetary value for which one currency can be exchanged for another. If the U.S. exchange rate for the Pakistani Rupee is Rs. 85, this means that one American Dollar can be exchanged for 85 Pakistani Rupees. Different diaries give their sentiment about relationship between rising prices and exchange rate. Now we explain journal ‘s positions about this relationship: –

Haldane ( 1995 )[ 1 ]present the design of rising prices mark is linked umbilical to the public assistance cost of rising prices. Yates ( 1995 )[ 2 ]the design of many rising prices aiming governments includes specific exclusion for problem that are predictable to outcome in fleeting monetary value degree actions lone. This has been detecting that optimum design of rising prices depends upon the costs of rising prices. Depending on how agents form outlooks of future rising prices, direct exchange rate effects coming through import monetary values may ensue merely in monetary value degree displacement. This arises perceive that a part of the ascertained rising prices in the CPI index is the consequence of alterations in import monetary values that are thrusts by recent motions in the exchange rate, and they form their outlooks of future CPI rising prices by looking through or disregarding these effects.

Svensson ( 1997 )[ 3 ]present the aims of pecuniary policy which serves to put the pick of exchange rate and rising prices aiming. Monetary constabularies can command rising prices and exchange rate in the long tally. In the short tally pecuniary policy can act upon the rising prices that have inauspicious effects. Since cardinal bank control the exchange rate and nominal exchange rate does non hold an built-in important for public assistance and economic growing. The pick between an exchange rate mark and an expressed rising prices mark should be seen as the pick between different intermediate marks in order to carry through the end for pecuniary policy. Monetary policy can non forestall such variableness in the existent exchange rate. But the negative effects of such variableness can be minimized with an rising prices mark.

Bleaney and Fielding ( 1999 )[ 1 ]present those developing states which peg their exchange rate accomplish lower rising prices. Developing states face a trade-off choosing exchange rate government drifting the exchange rate allows the governments greater freedom to react to exogenic dazes, so that they achieve greater stableness of end product ( and rising prices ) than under pegged rates, at the disbursal of higher mean rising prices. The hypothesis can be attributed to the inability of developing states to import the anti-inflation creditability of the progress states. The widespread acceptance of drifting exchange rates in the development universe has had a important cost, with faster rising prices than in the typical pegged-rate state.

Evans & A ; Lyons ( 1999 )[ 2 ]have used old informations on quotation marks and minutess to associate up the activities of bargainers and plus monetary values over several months. They find a strong relationship between client order flow and the DM/US $ exchange rate. A information set covering client trader trading and brokered interdealer trading become available, the order flow image can be completed. The affects of increasing order-flow transparence may be of import: unlike most other fiscal markets, the FX market is unregulated in this regard.

McCarthy ( 2000 )[ 1 ]discoveries that the impact of import monetary values and exchange rate on consumer monetary value index in industrialised states. The exchange rate has modest affect on domestic monetary value rising prices while import monetary values have a strong affect. This model is incorporates a distribution concatenation of monetary values, has been widely adopted by a figure of writers for analysing the exchange rate base on balls through for assorted states e.g. Leigh and Rossi ( 2002 ) for Turkey, Ashok ( 2002 ) for South Africa etc.

Taylor ( 2000 )[ 2 ]argued that pass-through is highest when exchange rate alterations are perceived to be relentless and monetary values accommodation because of the outlooks of the populace. The pass-through will moo because of low rising prices. The pass-through alterations in costs to monetary values, a diminution that is often characterized as the decrease in the ‘pricing power ‘ of houses. The paper alludes to the comparative version pf buying power para, which claims that base of equilibrium exchange rate between the two currencies will be determined by the comparative motions in the monetary value degrees in the two states. Change in the exchange rate has positive relation to the higher domestic monetary values.

In this equation, there are E bases for exchange rate in footings of domestic currency per unit of foreign currency. Stands for foreign currency monetary values of the imported goods and P stands for domestic currency. When fringy cost is changeless and markups of monetary values over costs is besides changeless than pass-through will be complete.

Grauwe ( 2000 )[ 1 ]analyze the deductions of the position for transmittal of pecuniary dazes. Monetary policy has different effects on the exchange rate and the monetary value degree depending on the nature of these beliefs. He claims that under the sets of beliefs that dominate the foreign exchange market, the ECB would establish it hard to command the rate of rising prices.

Odusola and Akinlo ( 2001 )[ 2 ]present the being of assorted consequences on the impacts of the exchange rate depreciation on the end product in both medium and long term. The flexible exchange rate system does non necessary to follow and take the end product enlargement in the short-run. The subject, assurance, creditability on the portion of the authorities is indispensable. The official exchange rate dazes were followed by additions in monetary values, money supply and parallel exchange rate. VAR theoretical accounts suggested that the impacts of loaning rate and rising prices on the end product were negative. The end product and parallel exchange rate are the major determiners of rising prices kineticss in Nigeria. The developments in the official exchange rate bring forth the positive impacts on the parallel exchange rate. It revealed that loaning rate and rising prices generated significant destabilising the impacts on the end product, the pecuniary authorization ‘s dramas and critical function in making an enabling environment for growing.

Choudhri, Faruqee and Hakura ( 2002 )[ 3 ]analyze the public presentation of unfastened economic systems all the manner through macroeconomic theoretical accounts illumination the exchange rate pass-through in a extended assortment of the monetary values. He has been used the theoretical account based on VAR theoretical accounts and concludes that best-fitting theoretical accounts incorporate a measure of characteristics painted by diverse strands of the literature: gluey monetary values, gluey rewards, allotment outgo and a merger of local and maker currency pricing.

Bhundia ( 2002 )[ 1 ]analyzes the measure to which fluctuations in the alleged exchange rate lead through to client monetary values in South Africa. While the regular pass-through is established to be near to the land, cogent evidence from a structural vector car arrested development suggests it is much greater for supposed ( against genuine ) dazes. However, dazes to manufacturer monetary values tend to hold a considerable impact on consumer monetary values. He besides found that pass-through is much higher for nominal instead than existent dazes. The Rossi ( 2002 ) finds that the pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic monetary values continues for a twelvemonth but is more intensive in the first four months, the pass-through to WPI is more marked than CPI, prognosis of rising prices. Rabnal besides prove that pass-through to WPI is more marked than pass-through CPI.

McFarlance ( 2002 )[ 2 ]present the affects of exchange rate altering on one of the followers ( 1 ) import & A ; export monetary values ( 2 ) consumer monetary values ( 3 ) investing and besides ( 4 ) trade volumes. The old survey on Jamaica tells that the pass-through on monetary values and rewards are important. The inflationary impact of exchange rate depreciation in Jamaica has declined in recent old ages. Pass-through to the CPI is about 80 % complete six months after initial dazes to the nominal exchange rate for the 1990 to 1995. And than after pass-through is less complete at about 45 % in the 1996 to 2001 six months after an initial dazes to the nominal exchange rate. In add-on to, the pass-through to CPI excepting starchy in agribusiness to the CPI over the two sub-samples. The pass- through is about 70 % in 1990 to 1995 complete six months after an initial daze to the nominal exchange rate. These consequences show that the velocity of the pass-through has slowed significantly in the last five old ages. This state of affairs shows the lower demand and structural transmutation in the Jamaica ‘s economic system. Additionally there has been increased competition in the domestic economic system: this coupled with the autumn in end product following the fiscal crises of the mid to late 1990 ‘s would hold had an impact on per capita income and hence aggregative demand.

Carr and Rebello ( 2002 )[ 1 ]analyze the feasibleness and complication of rising prices aiming in the development states. There is wealth of econometrics trying to show the success of assorted rising prices governments at diminishing rising prices. The success of a county is in low rising prices. Taylor ( 1991 ) shows the pecuniary governments react to other variables besides rising prices, such as end product and exchange rate. Stylized facts indicate that a common deduction of rising prices aiming is an appreciating exchange rate due to capital influxs. The exchange rate grasp is the consequence of rising prices aiming with unfastened capital markets. If monetary values are set as a markup over costs, than monetary values will be rather sensitive to alterations in the exchange rate. The exchange rate affects the equilibrium of the iso-inflation curve. The addition in capital influxs causes the exchange rate to appreciate. The ultimate rate of rising prices depends on the comparative affects of the exchange rate, involvement rate, and end product. The rising prices rate, exchange rate and involvement rate kineticss evolve over clip given initial short tally equilibrium conditions.

Berument and Pasaogullari ( 2003 )[ 2 ]have reviewed in their survey, that there is negative relationship between end product and existent exchange rate in Turkey. They analyzed that their exist long-run negative relationship between rising prices and exchange rate and end product. They run different VAR theoretical accounts and gauge the prognosis mistake discrepancy decompositions and impulse responses obtained from the VAR theoretical accounts were examined and they besides analyzed the bivariate relationship between the set of the variables of involvement. However, from Granger causality trial, a important causality between the variables could non be found. They found that a long-term relationship exists among rising prices, exchange rate and end product, which led us to use VAR theoretical accounts. After including different variables in VAR theoretical accounts like existent exchange rate, rising prices, end product, involvement rate, capital history and current history existent exchange rate motions were proved to be of import in the variableness of end product. They suggest that to restrict the damaging effects of devaluation, the overestimate of the currency must be prevented, and there is no easy manner to maintain end product costs at moderate degrees after devaluation. These happening suggest that an overvalued domestic currency may ab initio ensue in increased end product but may make the hazard of a fiscal crisis, which, in bend, may do exchange rate depreciation and subsequent end product losingss.

Carranza and Sanchez ( 2004 )[ 1 ]explicate the pass-through between exchange rate and rising prices with the grade of dollarization. They suggest that those states which have high dollarization demonstrate greater pass-through coefficients. With the usage of 15 samples emerging-market states with the different grades of dollarization, they find that pass-through in extremely dollarized economic systems is so higher, but it besides tend to be more asymmetric than in economic systems with a lower grade of dollarization. They define that there is negative pass-through coefficient during economic downtime. The ground for this abnormality is the unconstructive balance-sheet consequence that can take the constructive competition consequence generated by existent exchange rate depreciations.

Honohan and Lane ( 2004 )[ 1 ]argued that exchange rate motions have of import effects on rising prices divergency within the EMU. The rising prices rates of euro grasp ( 2002-2003 ) every bit good as periods of euro depreciation ( 1999-2001 ) . Harmonizing to Irish instance: in 2003 the pass-through of rising prices and exchange rate was already under manner and consumer monetary value rising prices stopped in its paths. Inflation fell to zero in response to the strengthening of the euro vis-a-vis the dollar. There is lagged correlativity between Irish CPI rising prices and the degree of nominal effectual exchange rate. They suggest the assortment of arrested developments to exp-lain one-year rising prices derived functions across the Euro zone over the 1999-2001 periods. They found the fluctuations in nominal effectual exchange rate motions explicating divergent rising prices rate during this period, although the HICP information suggest that this mostly operates via the influence of exchange rates on national end product spreads. The exchange rate channel is strongly important for each of the rising prices steps. There is besides some grounds of dissymmetries in that exchange rate depreciation passes through into rising prices more rapidly than does interchange rate grasp. Finally our analysis with quarterly informations 1999.1-2004 confirms the powerful connexion between exchange rate and rising prices. with the transition of clip, it should be possible to build a more complete accounting of the dynamic construction of the relationship between these variables than is possible with merely five old ages of informations.

Rutasitara ( 2004 )[ 2 ]explains that Tanzania in 1960s faced the rising prices and there has been involvement, hence, in rising prices public presentation and the function of the exchange rate in the procedure. When rising prices rate rise, so gnaw the value of money retentions, trade flows, investors confidence etc. the controls covered monetary values ( including rewards, involvement rate, goods monetary values, and exchange rate ) and allotment of domestic recognition and foreign exchange, the exchange rate became outstanding in the policy argument on the internal and external instabilities. Until so, the parallel exchange rate had an upper manus on the rate of rising prices compared with the official exchange rate. The impact of foreign monetary values and exchange rate depends upon bing pricing agreements, which in Tanzania have ranged from controls to “ markets ” . While a more or less “ stable ” nominal exchange rate is desirable for trade and investing determinations, it is more of import to keep the rate at sustainable degrees. The degree and chances of the foreign militias place are of import in this regard. The exchange rate remains precariously sensitive and easy vulnerable to exogenic dazes, domestic economic factors, and non-economic events like societal and political instability that may bring forth a desire to switch fiscal assets into a foreign currency considered to be more secure.

Bleaney and Francisco ( 2004 )[ 1 ]define that if the pecuniary governments adopt an accommodatory stance by leting the money supply to react more to the monetary value daze, so rising prices will be more continuity. Smith ( 1991 ) , Alogoskoufis ( 1992 ) and Obstfeld ( 1995 ) comparison continuity estimations for OECD states over different periods characterized by different exchange rate governments. When pecuniary governments in the OECD states began to acknowledge that a tough response to rising prices dazes was necessary to maintain inflationary outlooks down. Our consequences show that rising prices continuity is much the same under soft nogs as under drifting. It is significantly lower under difficult nog ( currency boards or a shared currency ) , where the range for pecuniary adjustment of rising prices dazes is much reduced.

Adolfson ( 2004 )[ 1 ]suggest that the pass-through from exchange rate alterations to monetary values in Swedish currency of imported goods is discussed every bit good as imaginable grounds for why these alterations are non passed through wholly in the short-run. The rising prices rate in Sweden had late been low.

rising prices = weight x domestic rising prices + ( 1-weight ) x imported rising prices

Where weight is domestic rising prices ‘s portion of entire rising prices. As a consequence, conditions in Sweden will besides impact imported rising prices, non merely via the exchange rate but besides through an impact on foreign exporters ‘ monetary values for Swedish importers. The comparative significance of the exchange rate and universe market monetary values for Swedish import monetary values is hard to find, nevertheless, since it is rare that information is available that would enable a comparing of the monetary value of a certain merchandise in the Swedish market. Rather, the recent autumn in import monetary values seems to be mostly attributable to interchange rate developments. T5hus in the short-run, the pass-through from exchange rate alterations to Swedish import monetary values appear to be limited. There is weak relationship between exchange arte and monetary values in the foreign market.

Bailliu and Fujii ( 2004 )[ 2 ]argued that believable pecuniary policy play an of import function to diminish the rising prices in industrialised states. Many industrialised states that the extant of pass-through of exchange rate into purchaser monetary values has turned down. They argued that ERPT is chiefly a map of the continuity of exchange rate and monetary value dazes, which tend to be reduced in an environment where rising prices is low and pecuniary policy is more believable. Using the information of 11 developed states more than the period from 1977-2001, they grounds to back up the hypothesis that EPRT declines with a displacement to a low-inflation milieus conveying approximately by modify in the fiscal policy control. The effect proposes that pass-through to import ; maker and consumer monetary value rising prices reduces following the rising prices stabilisation that occurred in most of the developed states in the early 1990s.

Ruiz ( 2005 )[ 1 ]in this survey describes the effects of rising prices and exchange rate uncertainness on the rate of existent economic activity.A He explains in his literature that these two issues and distinct issues.A Note whether the frequence of rising prices or the frequence of exchange rates on economic growing in the assorted actions or fiscal activity.A In this paper, the writer tries to turn to these issues by analysing the size and way of the consequence of: rising prices and the frequence in the exchange rate on existent economic activity.A Through the debut of dummy variables and control of pecuniary policy alteration ( alteration of rising prices aiming and flexible exchange rate ) . A Autoregressive utilizing a assortment of conditional ( GARCH ) rates of rising prices and exchange rates, and prognostic theoretical accounts obtained conditional discrepancy mistakes and steps of uncertainty.A The survey consequences indicate that the addition in the higher degree of uncertainness, doing rising prices farms, and frailty versa for the Colombian economy.A In add-on, the issue of rising prices merely to acquire out of the frequence of negative impact.

Goldstein and Lardy ( 2005 )[ 2 ]define as the weight of emerging economic systems in the planetary economic system has increased. This is peculiarly the instance with China ‘s exchange rate policy since it is now the universe ‘s 3rd largest importer and 4th largest exporter. Therefore, any accommodation of China ‘s exchange rate government will hold to keep most existing capital controls until the domestic Bankss are farther strengthened. China could at the same time and instantly take the limitations on capital flows and allow the market find value of the RMB. The restraints mean the hunt is for second-best policy options. International codifications of behavior for exchange rate policy are no less necessary than those for trade policy ; without them, there can be a free-for-all that is in no 1 ‘s involvement, least of all the emerging economic systems that depend so to a great extent on entree to international markets. Currency use is non a narrow academic issue, akin to how many angels can suit on the caput of a pin. It is alternatively a legitimate practical concern in set uping a degree international playing field.

Grauwe ( 2005 )[ 1 ]gives their positions on the relationship between rising prices and exchange rate that exchange rate government and rising prices is that pegged exchange rate contribute to lower and more stable rising prices. The exchange rate fastness does non cut down economic growing in the South Eastern and Central European states. In states, with strong institutional model ( based on cardinal bank independency and developed money markets ) , low rising prices can be achieved without any specific committedness to an expressed exchange rate mark. In big ( closed ) economic systems, rising prices targets-which imply freely drifting exchange rates-will non impact the volatility of rising prices. On the contrary, by repairing exchange rates to the euro, the states at the EMU fringe can harvest the benefits of more trade and lower involvement rates. The position that entry into the euro country will restrain the growing potency is non warranted. The grounds besides shows that for these little, unfastened economic systems, stabilising exchange rates has been a beginning of macroeconomic stableness. The Mundell model seems to be the right 1 to utilize in believing about the desirableness of fall ining the euro country. The hazard of to fall in the EMU will be peculiarly strong, if labour marker flexibleness is low.

Vargas ( 2005 )[ 1 ]explains pecuniary policy in Colombia converged to a pure, fully fledged inflation-targeting scheme after the forsaking of exchange rate sets in 1999. Colombia had experienced moderate rising prices ( 15-30 per centum one-year rates ) for about 20 old ages and a crawling-peg government with capital controls had been in topographic point since 1967. In the context of a pecuniary policy scheme based on the usage of intermediate pecuniary marks. Therefore, a natation government was established and pecuniary policy converged to a fully fledged inflation-targeting model. Monetary and foreign exchange policy had two chief initial aims. The first was to go on gradual disinflation toward its long-run mark and the second was to reconstruct international militias to degrees that would restrict the external exposure of the economic system. Get downing from a deep recession, the policy stance has been expansionary. Inflation has declined along diminishing marks, end product has recovered and international militias have reached degrees that limit the external exposure of the economic system. The most convincing hypothesis about the principle for intercession in Colombia is the statement in favour of managed natation. Therefore, financial instabilities pose a menace to the credibleness and power of pecuniary policy through several political economic system channels.

Angkinand and Willet ( 2006 )[ 2 ]Analyzing the effects of the pick of exchange rate governments on the likeliness of fiscal crisis in a sample of a really gifted market and developing states for the period 1990-2003.A It is a multi-channel testing of possible impacts of exchange rate governments to crises.A They found that soft Pegs associated with other cardinal systems with high possible economic crises of the ordinance reform hard corner and rates are really flexible, and partially because it seems to be associated with more loans in foreign currency are non protected and extensionA utmost recognition of the Interior.A Besides affect the trial through the channel of the pecuniary crises caused by the strong relationship between pecuniary and fiscal crises, and between the soft Pegs and pecuniary crisis.A These effects are much stronger in the market, the addition in developing states.

Allsopp, Kara and Nelson ( 2006 )[ 1 ]specify the United Kingdom ‘s pecuniary policy scheme can be characterized as one of drifting exchange rates and rising prices prognosis targeting. The specification of exchange rate and rising prices relationship implied by “ standard ” New Keynesian theoretical accounts, which postulate that imports serve as finished consumer goods, is inconsistent with the U.K empirical grounds. It is a well-known rule in the New Keynesian literature that the index whose rising prices rate is targeted should mention to the set of monetary values which are gluey and which prevent the instantaneous accomplishment of the flexible-price equilibrium. The broader policy deductions arise from the manner in which openness is modeled and the manner in which exchange rate alterations impact on rising prices. In the standard theoretical account, there is a direct and immediate consequence on the monetary value of imported consumer goods, which so impacts straight on rising prices. When imports are intermediate goods, following the specification used and recommended by McCallum and Nelson ( 1999 ) , the U.K. grounds can be reconciled with optimising theory. In peculiar, the weak relationship observed between consumer monetary value rising prices and exchange-rate alterations, despite strong rates of pass-through, can be rationalized. Furthermore, this patterning scheme implies that it is appropriate to aim consumer monetary value rising prices. Monetary policy governments do affair for the exchange rate/inflation relationship, but non in the mode argued in the literature. Several surveies have appealed to the function of pecuniary policy government in barricading the pass-through of exchange-rate motions to imported goods monetary values. The U.K. grounds alternatively is consistent with significant pass-through to import monetary values across governments. Adjustment of the comparative monetary value of imports is frequently a desirable response to existent dazes hitting the economic system. To some extent, this accommodation may be facilitated by allowing a erstwhile rise in the aggregative monetary value degree even if at the cost of rising prices temporarily traveling off from the mark. The U.K. experience under rising prices targeting, nevertheless, suggests that merely minor divergences of rising prices from mark would be required for this intent. the exchange rate should be taken into history merely via their influence on the prognosis for consumer monetary value rising prices are unfastened to the unfavorable judgment that standard theoretical accounts suggest that consumer monetary values constitute excessively wide an index to aim, and that the imported constituent should be removed from the targeted rising prices rate. A properly-measured end product spread ( i.e. one which takes into history the negative impact on possible end product of a higher existent cost of imports ) is an equal sum-up of the deductions of exchange-rate motions for public assistance.

Edwards ( 2006 )[ 1 ]says that in many states the nominal exchange rate is frequently used as a agency of kerb inflation.A Currency crisis are common, and normally the consequence of ague ( Real Madrid ) , inordinate exchange rate. It affects rising prices, exports, imports and economic activity. For decennaries the huge bulk of emerging states had stiff exchange rate governments. This move off from exchange rate rigidness has tended to take topographic point at the same clip as many states have embraced rising prices aiming as a manner of carry oning pecuniary policy. The concurrence of IT and flexible rates has brought to the centre of the treatment a host of new policy issues, including issues related to the function of the exchange rate in pecuniary policy, volatility and the relationship between exchange rate alterations and rising prices. He addressed three of this issues: ( a ) the relationship between the pass-through and the effectivity of nominal exchange rates in IT regimes ; ( B ) the effects of IT on exchange rate volatility ; and ( degree Celsius ) the function ( or possible function ) of exchange rate alterations on the pecuniary regulation in IT states. States that have adopted IT have experienced a declined in the pas-through from exchange rate alterations to rising prices. In many of the states in the sample this diminution in the pass-through has been different from CPI rising prices than for PPI rising prices. The acceptance of IT pecuniary policy processs has non resulted in an addition in ( nominal or existent ) exchange rate volatility. there is some grounds that IT states with a history of high an unstable rising prices tend to take into history explicitly developments in the nominal exchange rate when carry oning pecuniary policy.

Kamin ( 2006 )[ 1 ]Describes the comparative research between the response to alterations in rising prices rates in competitory exchange rates in assorted parts of the world.A The study shows that the empirical relationship between rising prices and the degree of existent exchange rate, which has been documented in Mexico before research by the writer, covering a broad scope of other countries.A This can be a quandary for policy shapers because it means you can non take down rising prices and increase the fight of exports entree to the same time.A In response to the rising prices of the existent exchange rate is much higher in Latin America, Asia or in industrialised countries.A This difference in the reactivity of rising prices is non a full account of the day of the month of rising prices or the grade of openness to foreign trade.A It may be less sensitive to rising prices, existent exchange rate in Asia than in Latin America is traveling to let Asiatic states continues to concentrate on ever keeping fight and export growing.

Bjornstad and Jansen ( 2007 )[ 2 ]define that Norway adopted a flexible rising prices mark in March 2001. Before 2001 Norway followed assorted exchange rate marks, foremost aiming a trade weighted basket of currencies ( 1978-1990 ) with several little realignments and a concluding large devaluation in May 1986. An absence of international currency crises at that place has been greater fluctuation in the nominal exchange rate. The empirical correlativities suggest that an addition in the Norse involvement rate relation to that of the euro zone weakens the Norse Krone in the short tally. In an exchange rate aiming government the involvement rate is seldom used and merely to antagonize big motions in the exchange rate after intercessions have failed to stabilise the exchange rate. When the cardinal bank targets the exchange rate, involvement rates are seldom used and merely to antagonize big motions in the exchange rate when intercessions have failed. With rising prices aiming the involvement rate is used to stabilise the domestic economic system and the exchange rate responds strongly to involvement rate alterations with the expected mark. The consequence of an involvement rate alteration on the exchange rate may be different and stronger if it comes as a surprise to the agents compared to the instance where it is anticipated.